posted 08 December 2003 05:43 AM            

(1) Technology

We know long time already that:
1. PC CPU-s and networks become faster and faster making it possible to have normal quality desktop videoconferencing.
2. Laptops are more widely used meaning people want to work mobile.
3. Firewalls and private IP-addresses are the main hindrance for VoIP.

(2) What people want

1. Users would like to have unified conferencing: to be able to mail, chat (IM), talk and see each other.
2. The UI has to be convenient and fast.

(3) What people have

1. ViaVideo. It's portable and normal quality, but:
- little-bit too big to carry around
- you can call only to limited number of users (firewalls, etc).
- user interface startup not very fast

2. Web conference. It has familiar UI and doesn't require any special software to be installed. Nevertheless:
- it does not often offer (firewall friendly) support for voice and video over IP
- you have to set up a web conference, you are not "always connected".

3. Messengers, a la Windows messenger. Messengers are good because they have convenient global directories; they require almost no user invention after first configuration. However:
- to use data or voice conferencing you have firewall problems.

4. Skype - VoIP and IM software that goes through firewalls. As convenient as Messenger, but now (in beta state):
- is point to point only
- offers no video nor data connection.

(4) What may happen next

1. I may be too conservative but I think business customers are going to use POTS PBXs for long time:
- price per user is cheaper that with VoIP
- it's very reliable while it is very mission critical
- it is everywhere

The main reason to have VoIP on desktop is mobility. However, most people have mobile phones to achieve that.

In conclusion I doubt PBX manufacturers are going to be strong players in unified messaging / conferencing field.

2. Microsoft's idea to have video as a feature of the messenger is very good. Microsoft offers a global directory service and does it free of charge. Their aim is to sell Windows as a desktop OS and they are ready to offer many services free of charge to make Windows competitive.

However, messenger video is p-to-p and firewalls are still in play. It's no problem if you want to communicate within a company only. But globally the problems can be overcome by help of CSP-s.

3. Idea of integrating firewall-friendly web confernce with messengers (like Click to Meet) seems to be good idea as well. In case the UI is really comfortable.

(5) In conclusion.

Maybe I'm too myopic to see strong disrupting PBX - conference convergence in near future.

There will be a need for multipoint voice / video (/ data) conference service, so there there will be room for CSP-s in the market.

The need for high quality group conferencing solution remains. As the number of sold group systems is not very big (around 700k?) this market shouldn't change very much.

IPv6 should cease firewall problem in some years. It will boost unified messaging.

I'm I wrong somewhere?

posted 24 December 2003 11:54 AM            

I am also looking at this issue from:

First,I am just wandering how the extent or magnitude of integration planned on products between the two companies will impact on the bilateral relations going forward from business perspectives. Seems like integration extends accross the board from Polycom perspective.

Second, I am also wandering how this strengthened bilateral relations will affect other variables such as relationship between Tandberg and Cisco, or one between Polycom and Cisco.

Third, I am wandering how the Cisco's scheduled delivery of desktop video in 2004 (according to recent Analyst Conference)will impact on market landscape in desktop video dominated by Polycom and VCON.

Fourth, I also am wandering and trying to see this Avaya and Polycom agreement in the context of Avaya's fierce competition against Cisco and probably Nortel as well in IP Telephony market. According to Avaya's CEO's recent presentation, Avaya, Cisco and Nortel are neck-and-neck in their market share competition. And each of them are trying to get out of it to lead the market in definite sense.

All these questions or assumptions are wandering in my head recently.

My two cents or I should rather say,"My Japanese two Yen(=2 US cents almost)"

posted 11 January 2004 05:49 AM               

My prediction is that within 5 years the upscale office workers PC will be their phone and video conferencing endpoint. Yes VC to the desktop, along with data collaberation, and document sharing. Within 10 it will be the norm.